Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 35.004813 39.531774 44.860349 51.720595 60.516260 71.717972 87.617076
2025-04-27 28.910669 34.461661 41.664695 52.127117 67.806745 92.273226 138.557842
2025-05-04 25.089445 31.082144 39.441029 52.817843 75.861261 120.215065 242.405451
2025-05-11 22.280687 28.389300 37.384751 52.940546 83.218334 155.350855 490.785839
2025-05-18 20.007052 26.009787 35.206798 52.086787 88.448301 194.755640 1292.598375
2025-05-25 18.452757 24.425811 33.915048 52.348059 96.396403 260.901926 51085.283403
2025-06-01 17.096865 22.943903 32.496843 51.917299 102.642897 345.756993 NaN
2025-06-08 15.943694 21.633464 31.143531 51.227412 107.995373 462.711035 NaN
2025-06-15 14.977693 20.515077 29.954245 50.572647 113.313064 644.006145 NaN
2025-06-22 14.195802 19.617803 29.035151 50.294706 120.082787 999.695713 NaN
2025-06-29 13.405979 18.635628 27.833103 49.066540 122.632651 1469.746073 NaN
2025-07-06 13.164732 18.554847 28.319887 52.129082 147.088839 15496.642937 NaN
2025-07-13 12.553212 17.794696 27.409354 51.410646 153.593593 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.103572 17.284467 26.942593 51.815217 167.816966 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 11.718595 16.858811 26.598413 52.500145 186.092400 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.322919 16.384766 26.100772 52.622169 201.876553 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 10.889406 15.813826 25.341705 51.777135 209.340118 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.571135 15.433657 24.954966 52.035965 229.023779 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.230990 14.992465 24.394124 51.609514 242.213934 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.899596 14.549397 23.791662 50.926404 252.337376 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.594099 14.139092 23.229451 50.278002 262.905185 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.332539 13.798223 22.796145 50.002747 279.834817 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.031568 13.369021 22.132207 48.786299 280.228837 NaN NaN